statplate

The findings

What thirteen years of Texas school data actually says, written for humans, with every caveat attached.

  1. 1The pipelineWhy so few software developers are Black or HispanicAn office of 100 U.S. software developers averages about 5 Black and 6 Hispanic engineers. That ratio is set long before anyone reaches an interview. It is visible in Texas classrooms at age 8.
  2. 2The majorityTexas's future workforce is Hispanic. Its pipeline isn't ready.Hispanic students are the largest group in Texas schools, and fewer than four in ten clear any of the state's tested college-readiness bars.
  3. 3The athlete channelVarsity pays now. The jackpot almost never comes.Schools have celebrated the star athlete over the top student since at least 1961, and pro sports is the one elite pipeline whose stars are mostly Black. Betting on varsity is a response to real incentives. The catch: the NFL drafts about 1 in 900 high school players.
  4. 4Ready on paper"College-ready" doubled. College-going fell.Texas' official readiness measure and actual college enrollment have moved in opposite directions, for Black students and for everyone else.
  5. 5The sharpest local findingSAT participation rose across Texas and fell in Montgomery CountyBlack students' SAT/ACT participation climbed statewide while Montgomery County's fell 9 points. The county diverged from a rising state.
  6. 6Advanced-course accessPrepared, but not placedAt hundreds of Texas high schools, Black students complete advanced courses less often than their own test scores predict.
  7. 7COVID and algebraCOVID halved Black students' algebra proficiency. It hasn't come back.Six years on, no group in Texas is close to its 2019 level on the state's universal Algebra I test.
  8. 8Where the gap opens28 points by the first testThe Black-White math gap is already about 28 points at third grade, the state's first measurement, and stays that size through 8th.
  9. 9The usual explanation, testedIt's not just moneyBlack students statewide score below low-income students of all races, so income alone cannot explain the gap.
  10. 10Two metrics, two verdictsThe gap that hasn't moved since 2012Texas' readiness metric says the Black-White gap is closing fast. The test-score metric says it hasn't moved in a decade.
  11. 11The stereotype, testedIs it a math problem? Two answers, both true.Against White classmates, Black students' SAT gap is the same in math and reading. Against the college-ready bar, it is overwhelmingly math.
  12. 12County rankingsWhere counties stand for Black studentsTexas counties ranked by Black graduates enrolling in a Texas college, classes of 2020-2022 pooled.