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The tech pipeline, from 3rd grade·The real odds of going pro·Ready on paper, not enrolled·248 grads a year, no SAT·A 28-point math gap by 3rd grade·Who gets advanced classes·Is it a math problem?·The gap stuck since 2012·County rankings

The state's own numbers · updated through the class of 2024

Texas says 75% of its Black graduates are “college-ready.” Fewer than half enroll in a Texas college.

Thirteen years of the state's own campus records, made readable. Readiness on paper has split from college in practice. That is the first finding; eleven more follow.

40506070201620182020202220247545“ready”: 75%enrolled: 45%
Black graduates statewide, classes of 2016–2024, 31,000–46,000 students a year. “Enrolled” counts Texas colleges only and runs through 2022, the newest linked data. Read the full story

How is your school doing?

9,000 campuses and 1,200 districts, every student group, 2012–2025. Confidence ranges included.

248Black graduates a yearfinish high school in Montgomery County without ever taking the SAT or ACT, even as test-taking rises across Texas.28pointsseparate Black and White third-graders in math the first time Texas measures them. Schools inherit the gap; on average they neither widen nor close it.14high schoolshave Black students outscoring their White classmates on Algebra who still complete advanced courses far less often.

The quiz

1 of 5

Texas calls 75% of its Black graduates “college-ready.” What share actually enrolls in a Texas college?

Where Black graduates go to college, and where they don't

Share of Black graduates enrolling in a Texas college, by county.

OchiltreeOldhamParkerRainsRandallRobertsRockwallSan SabaSomervellStephensStonewallTerryTitusUpshurUvaldeWardWilliamsonWiseZavalaArcherArmstrongBastropBlancoBrooksBurnetCampCastroCochranConchoCoryellCraneDawsonDeWittDimmitEdwardsFayetteFranklinGarzaGonzalesGrayGrimesHallHansfordHillHowardHutchinsonJim HoggJohnsonKentKerrKnoxLa SalleLive OakLubbockMcLennanMasonMidlandMontgomeryNavarroNolanBriscoeBrownCaldwellCameronCarsonCassCherokeeClayCokeCollinCollingsworthComalOrangeParmerReaganRealRed RiverRobertsonRunnelsSabineScurryShackelfordShelbySmithStarrSterlingSuttonSwisherTaylorThrockmortonTom GreenTravisTylerVan ZandtVictoriaWashingtonWheelerWichitaWillacyWoodAndersonAtascosaAustinBaileyBaylorBeeBexarBordenBosqueBrazoriaKimbleKinneyLamarLampasasLavacaLeeLibertyLimestoneLipscombLovingLynnMcCullochMartinMaverickMenardMilamMillsMooreNuecesPalo PintoPolkReevesSan AugustineSchleicherShermanTarrantTrinityWalkerWhartonWilsonYoungAndrewsBanderaBellBrazosCallahanChildressColemanColoradoCrosbyDeltaDuvalErathFloydFrioGillespieGlasscockGoliadGreggGuadalupeHartleyHaysHockleyHuntJasperKarnesKingLambLeonLlanoMadisonMedinaMitchellMorrisCottleCrockettCulbersonDallamDallasDentonDickensEastlandEllisFallsFanninFisherFort BendGraysonHaleHamiltonMotleyNacogdochesNewtonHardemanHardinHarrisHarrisonHemphillHendersonHidalgoHopkinsIrionJackJacksonJeff DavisJim WellsJonesKendallPecosPresidioRefugioRuskSan JacintoSan PatricioTerrellUptonVal VerdeWallerWebbWilbargerWinklerYoakumZapataAngelinaAransasBowieBrewsterBurlesonCalhounChambersComancheCookeKlebergMcMullenMarionMatagordaMontagueDeaf SmithKenedyEctorEl PasoFoardFreestoneGainesDonleyGalvestonHoodHoustonHudspethJeffersonKaufmanPanolaHaskellPotter
too few students
See where your county ranks

The findings

Most are statewide. A few zoom in on Montgomery County, north of Houston, where this project started.

  1. 1Why so few software developers are Black or Hispanic.5.4% Black, 6.1% Hispanic. The tiering behind those numbers is visible at age 8.5 in 100
  2. 2NewVarsity pays now. The jackpot almost never comes.Black players are 70% of the NBA and 15% of classrooms. The famous going-pro odds are wrong, and too grim.1 in 900
  3. 3Texas's future workforce is Hispanic. Its pipeline isn't ready.Fewer than four in ten of the state's largest student group clear any tested college-readiness bar.
  4. 4SAT participation rose across Texas and fell in Montgomery County.Black participation climbed 9 points statewide while the county dropped 9.
  5. 5“College-ready” doubled. College-going fell.The state's readiness measure has detached from actual enrollment, everywhere, for every group.
  6. 6Prepared, but not placed.At equal test scores, White students still complete advanced courses about 6 points more.6 pts
  7. 7COVID cut algebra proficiency in half. It hasn't come back.Black students went 40%, 20%, 26%. No group has recovered.
  8. 8It's not just money.Black students statewide score below low-income students of all races combined.26 vs 29
  9. 9One gap closed fast. The other hasn't moved since 2012.The readiness gap converged. The test-score gap is stuck near 31 points.
  10. 1028 points by the first test.The gap is fully formed at age 8 and stays flat through 8th grade.28
  11. 11Is it a math problem? Two answers, both true.Against White peers: no subject bias. Against the college-ready bar: overwhelmingly math.96 pts
  12. 12Where counties stand.Fort Bend County leads Texas on Black college enrollment. Suburbs beat the urban cores.Fort Bend

Why believe any of this? Every number is the Texas Education Agency's own, checked against the official PDFs, added up across whole counties so small-school noise can't drive it, and shown with what it can't prove. The methods, in plain words.